Impacto económico de la inversión pública en el Perú, 1980 - 2012

Abstract

This research estimates the impact of public investment in the economic growth of Peru (1980-2012). The impact analysis includes a study of the evolution of each variable in the model, a specific study of the public investment structure and its changes over the time, and a joint analysis between both public investment and economic growth, including the evolution of the main economic activities.

The econometric model used for the estimation and quantification of the dynamic effects is the Vector Autoregressive (VAR). The VAR approach considers the dynamic impacts of random disturbances on a system of variables where each variable is influenced by current and past values of the other variables in the system. The model considers private-sector output, private investment and public investment. Employment is not included in the model since it has a restriction of historic data.

Empirical results at the aggregate level suggest that public investment have a positive effect on private output in the middle and long run. In addition, the quality analysis finds the public investment structure related to the dynamic of certain economic activities, more than others. Complementary, the results suggest the relation between public investment and private investment depends on the economic structure.