Factores determinantes de la morosidad en las cajas municipales en el periodo: 2016-2021

Abstract

Estimate and explain the effects of macroeconomic and microeconomic variables that affect credit portfolio in Cajas Municipales de Ahorro y Crédito del Perú was the purpose of this research. In such context, the objective was defined as to identify the determinants of credit portfolio of CMACs in the period: 2016-2021 and their relationship and degree of impact with arrears. The methodological procedures included: a dynamic panel model based on monthly series and the application of the Sargan test and the Arellano and Bond test to verify the validity of the instruments. The results showed that in Peru, in the period analyzed, there were 12 CMACs, with total coverage in the 25 regions, 2 of them with more than 450 thousand clients. According to the econometric estimation, both the explanatory variables and the first lag of the dependent variable are significant for having a pvalue < 0.05. The main conclusions indicate that credit portfolio is influenced by both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors, where the lending rate and the liquidity ratio, both in local currency, have a positive impact on arrears, while economic activity and loan growth have a negative impact, so that the quality of the CMAC portfolio is influenced by these variables.