Impacto del precio internacional del cobre sobre los términos de intercambio y el producto bruto interno, 2004 a 2020

Abstract

This research is to evaluate the impact of the international price of copper on the terms of trade and the gross domestic product, between the years 2004 and 2020, for this an econometric model of autoregressive vectors with a lag (VAR (1)), with data extracted from the database of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru; Likewise, it has been guaranteed that the time series of the variables are stationary and have a normal behavior. In conclusion, the study finds that a shock to the international copper price explains more than 22% of the variance of the terms of trade; in the same way, at a significance level of 69% there is a Granger causality between the shock of the international price of copper and the terms of trade; The same result is obtained considering the same level of significance between the copper price shock and the gross domestic product. Furthermore, this impact on the terms of trade variable is temporary and positive, this only affects the first two periods and then returns to stationary state. Similarly, a shock to the international copper price explains less than 1% of the variation of gross domestic product. Finally, is the economic theory and the research mentioned that give credibility and support to these results.