Desarrollo microfinanciero y crecimiento económico: el caso del departamento de Lima y Callao (Perú) en el periodo 2001 - 2016

Abstract

The objective of this research is to make a quantitative assessment of the impact of microfinance development on the growth of economic activity in the department of Lima and Callao. As a conceptual framework, national and international studies related to micro and small enterprises, microfinance institutions and regional development are presented; In addition, the theories of economic growth and their link with financial development are presented. The present investigation uses quarterly information for the period 2001 - 2016. An econometric model of time series was elaborated that has as a dependent variable the growth rate of GDP per capita of Lima and Callao and as explanatory variables to the portfolio balances of the different types of microfinance institutions as a percentage of GDP per capita of Lima and Callao, other variables that affect economic growth and even a fictitious variable to incorporate the effect of the international financial crisis of 2008 that affected the placements of microfinance institutions. The positive variations in the level of Mibanco placements, the CMACs and the Edpymes that operate in Lima and Callao generate positive changes in the per capita GDP growth rate of Lima and Callao. While the positive changes in the level of loans from the CRACs and the Financials that operate in Lima and Callao produce negative changes in the per capita GDP growth rate of Lima and Callao, and the latter could be due to the activities financed by these Institutions are informal and therefore are not captured by the Lima and Callao GDP accounts. Finally, the positive variations in the level of placements of all microfinance institutions (Mibanco, CMAC, CRAC, Edpymes and Financieras) operating in Lima and Callao generate positive changes in the per capita GDP growth rate of Lima and Callao. An exercise in comparative statics shows that if the placements of the Lima and Callao microfinance institutions with respect to the GDP of Lima and Callao grew by 1%, the per capita GDP growth rate of Lima and Callao would grow 2.16%.