Suspensión de las reglas fiscales para 2020 y 2021: elemento esencial de la respuesta de política fiscal de Perú frente a la COVID-19

Abstract

COVID-19 affected the Peruvian economy through different channels: lower prices of commodities, high volatility in international financial markets, less dynamism in some key activities in the local economy, among others. In this context, the outlook for fiscal revenue was downward (due to lower economic activity) and for the public expenditure was upward (due to the Economic Plan against COVID-19 implemented by the government). In this sense, it was necessary an expansion of the fiscal rules limits due to pressures for a higher fiscal deficit and a higher public debt, given the magnitude of the shock associated with the pandemic. Thus, the Ministry of Economy and Finance carried out many analyzes of fiscal sustainability to determine new limits for the fiscal rules. These analyses were based mainly on public debt scenarios and forecasts. It was concluded that the optimal policy was to establish a temporary and exceptional suspension of the fiscal rules for 2020 and 2021. This decision was based on two aspects: (i) the fiscal strengths of the country and the trust of the financial markets in them, and (ii) the high degree of uncertainty about the effects of COVID- 19 on the country, which could require a greater fiscal impulse to mitigate the adverse effects of the pandemic on the country's economic activity and on the well-being of citizens.