Relación de los factores socioeconómicos y la criminalidad en Lima y Callao (2017-2023)

Abstract

This study analyzes the relationship between socioeconomic factors and crime in Lima and Callao during the 2017–2023 period. Using a quantitative and correlational approach, the research examines economic variables (GDP, poverty, unemployment) and social variables (illiteracy, school dropout rates) in relation to criminal indicators such as theft, drug trafficking, and homicide. Official data from INEI, PNP, MINEDU, and IPE were used, and statistical correlation techniques were applied to identify significant associations.

The results reveal that crime does not respond uniformly to the analyzed factors. A notable finding is the negative correlation between poverty and theft, suggesting a complex interaction between economic vulnerability and criminal behavior. Additionally, school dropout rates—at both basic and secondary levels—are negatively associated with homicides and drug-related crimes, indicating a possible protective effect of educational retention. In contrast, unemployment showed no significant relationship with the studied crimes, challenging traditional assumptions.

These findings highlight the need for comprehensive public policies that take into account the specific dynamics of urban contexts such as Lima and Callao. Strengthening education and promoting formal employment are recommended as preventive strategies, along with differentiated interventions according to the type of crime and its associated factors.