Análisis de los umbrales de alerta roja para reducir la incertidumbre en la caída de materiales en unidades mineras polimetálicas

Abstract

Ensuring slope stability in open-pit polymetallic mining operations is one of the most complex challenges in the mining industry, due to the increased deformations associated with the advancement and deepening of pits. Proper geotechnical risk management, based on monitoring and statistical analysis tools, is essential for anticipating and mitigating failures. In this context, the present research develops an alternative methodology based on the statistical treatment of monitoring data and the back-analysis of geotechnical events, with the aim of improving red alert thresholds and reducing uncertainty regarding material falls. Deformation data were collected and analyzed using normal and log-normal distributions, allowing for the definition of new, more accurate alert ranges. The results obtained show that the application of back-analysis, combined with appropriate statistical techniques, allows for the establishment of more reliable alert thresholds compared to conventional methods. Additionally, it was demonstrated that the definition of stages within the red alert threshold significantly improves the ability to respond to imminent geotechnical events. It is concluded that the proposed methodology contributes to strengthening geotechnical risk management in polymetallic mining, providing a practical tool for reducing operational risk and ensuring safety in operations.