Mercado de valores peruano y el crecimiento económico periodo trimestral (2001.1-2014.4)

Abstract

The present research aims to analyze the existence of the relationship between the stock market and the economic growth of the country, during the first quarter of 2001 and fourth quarter of 2014. For this it was necessary to present some a theoretical consideration on which underlies the relationship between the stock market and economic growth. Likewise, there has been a review of some studies conducted are related to the research topic, which have been carried out in Colombia by Stefany Gamez (2012) in his study entitled " Efficiency of the capital market and Its Relationship With economic growth: the case of Colombia (2001-2011) ", in Venezuela by Maylix Brianto (2010) the Central Bank of Venezuela conducted a study entitled" Capital Markets and economic growth - Venezuela Case”and in Peru by Jesus Coronel Salirrosas (2009 ) in his research " Development of Capital Markets In Peru in the Period 1985-2002”. In concordance with the theoretical considerations and theoretical work mentioned, this research presents empirical evidence on the relationship between the developments of the stock market with economic growthin the country during the period 2001.1 - 2014.4. The results show that the series individually are integrated of one order, i.e are not stationary. Furthermore, the cointegration analysis between variables was performed to determine that there is a common trend among variables included in the model. Through a ECM we analyzes the dynamics of adjustment between the short and long term of the model. Also, we have raised the vector autorregresion model to allow data specifying the dynamic structure of the model. We conclude that Peruvian economy there is an evidence of a feedback mechanism between the development of the stock market and economic growth but this relation is not strong. For that reason the policymarkers should promote the development of the stock market to improve the relationship with economic growht. Keywords:Gross domestic product measured in real terms (PBIR), stock market, market capitalization(CB), amount traded (MTN), multiple linear regression model (MLRM), vector autoregressive (VAR), error correction mechanism (ECM), cointegration relation , impulse response function (IRF).